In Play prices for horse racing

[OzPunter]

Thanks BFExplorer, certainly GPS would be able to detect a by the nose finish, and country meetings are not going to invest in the technology..

[bfexplorer]

Thanks BFExplorer, certainly GPS would be able to detect a by the nose finish, and country meetings are not going to invest in the technology..

"Certainly GPS would be able to detect a by the nose finish" Really? Can you explain me how GPS with accuracy of from 2 to 15 meters would be able to detect "the nose finish".

I think down there are running 15 meters tall horses on races, is that right?

[WTPooh]

Ok. Maybe it is not GPS but some other tracking technology.
Watch this video and explain the graphics on the bottom of the screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzcqvIt6DNA

[bfexplorer]

Have a look at here:

https://youtu.be/uzcqvIt6DNA?t=90

It is GPS, and as you can see the position of horses is just for presentation purposes, it is switched off at the end of the race where position of horses could show not so accurate/exact position in the final line.

At the race, all horses positions are received through at least 4 satellites, to get position in 3 dimensions, their position could be with accuracy from 2 to 15 meters, during the race is important position of horses, relative to each other, and as all GPS receivers on horses got position with the same unknown error (2m-15m), their relative position is relatively precise.

So during the race you can use this information, as relative position is actually what you need, but at the end of the race, where really we should take maximal error in position so 15 meters, you can not take this information as so useful.

Yes, relative position among horses can be used by fully automated bots, from GPS data you can calculate tempo, speed, and whether horse is slowing down or opposite at the end of the race, but as the position from final line is not accurate, I would not use this information, as stated so backing winners, couple meters from final line.

[WTPooh]

Thanks for great explanation.
But we don't need exact positions of the horses. We can use positions relative to finish line where we can also have GPS receiver. Or we can adjust GPS data knowing exact GPS position of finish line.

[OzPunter]

I can't agree WTPooh, if that's how its done in Horse Racing, how is it done in a Soccer Match, or Tennis. GPS is not the answer I'm afraid..

[OzPunter]

"Certainly GPS would be able to detect a by the nose finish" Really? Can you explain me how GPS with accuracy of from 2 to 15 meters would be able to detect "the nose finish".

I think down there are running 15 meters tall horses on races, is that right?

Nope, just regular thoroughbreds.. Inplay prices are not just for racing its all sports and BF has the result before anybody else..

[SergioDagest]

I am not sure that GPS would be able to detect a by the nose finish at all. But I can mistake.

[MarcusMel]

A long while back I saw that there was software that predicted the probability of each horse winning while in running. I guess that prices are now based on different versions of similar software. If you think you know which will lose in running you could possibly collect all the outstanding back bets. You only have to be right more times than wrong!

[OzPunter]

A long while back I saw that there was software that predicted the probability of each horse winning while in running. I guess that prices are now based on different versions of similar software. If you think you know which will lose in running you could possibly collect all the outstanding back bets. You only have to be right more times than wrong!

That's interesting MarcusMel, In theory, (or at least how I understand it) the prices on BF are derived by people (or programs) placing and matching bets. The rate at which these prices change while InPlay suggests that the bets are traded by programs not humans. So the software you mention would have to get feedback on the position of a runner in the race. If the software can predict the probability of each horse winning then it must know the position of every runner in the race, virtually instantly.. Which raises the main question .. How?

When I try to place a bet on a runner while InPlay the race is virtually over before my bet gets processed and placed..

[MarcusMel]

My two-penny take is that "they" take the camera feed from all the cameras, run recognition software along with a statistcal model and arrive at some dynamic prices. "they" are the multiple gambling companies who hope to adjust the "book" on each event.

[OzPunter]

My two-penny take is that "they" take the camera feed from all the cameras, run recognition software along with a statistcal model and arrive at some dynamic prices. "they" are the multiple gambling companies who hope to adjust the "book" on each event.

Apparently its actually taken from people betting on Betfair on course.. Not sure if that's the case though, when you look at some Australian country racecourses, there wouldn't be 1,000 people in the whole town, let alone on course betting..