In Play prices for horse racing

[OzPunter]

Here's something that has puzzled me for a long time...

Watching the back & lay prices while a race is "In Play", the winners price always drops to near 1.01 just before the end of the race, and if a favored runner is not fairing well in a race the price rockets up.

If this is done by robot programs during a race how is it they always get it right?

What magical algorithm always points to the winner moments before the race ends.

I've seen this occur in some remote country races with very low betting activity which I think rules out humans betting on course causing a plunge at the race end,
so How It It Done??

[LiamP]

On course or via streams (SIS/FaceTime) and they don’t always get it right, loads of value in racing.

[OzPunter]

I don't think so LiamP,
I'm not sure if you're familiar with Australia, its a huge country with some really small towns. Towns of less that 10k inhabitants are very common, and some towns have populations in less than 100 people.

There are many small towns of less than 10k people that have racetracks covered by Betfair and yet the in play prices are displayed almost instantly whereas the video is 10 - 15 seconds delayed and sometimes not available at all.

These small town racetracks have a very limited budgets, often run barely at break even.
So would they invest in the technology required to transmit race positions of runners during a race, many of these towns have limited Internet access and Mobile Phone (Cell Phones / Satellite Phones) service is pretty hit and miss.

Yesterday at one such meeting there was a case where the race judges took several minutes looking at a photo finish to determine the winner, yet I knew who won because BF's in play prices got it right..

True BF's in play prices can be wrong sometimes in close finishes but the success rate is extraordinary, far more than you'd expect from a human operator.

So How is it done?

[LiamP]

Maybe all of these venues are made up and we are all just betting on virtual races.

[OzPunter]

Maybe all human life is just one big computer game....

[troyedwards8]

Simply it is people or bookies betting on the live race. However I have seen horses drop to 1.01 and then skyrocket to 1000 as they just get pipped.

[LiamP]

Maybe all human life is just one big computer game....

I think you are onto something here.

[OzPunter]

TroyEdwards8. The in play prices are a mystery, I have also seen massive swings in prices when they are close to the finish, only a robot program could match that fast, and I don't think its humans betting on course, they'd be way to slow..

[LiamP]

TroyEdwards8. The in play prices are a mystery, I have also seen massive swings in prices when they are close to the finish, only a robot program could match that fast, and I don't think its humans betting on course, they'd be way to slow..

I think you are underestimating the on course players, they all have 1.01 plugged in to get matched when backing and similar when laying, I hope they continue!

[bfexplorer]

TroyEdwards8. The in play prices are a mystery, I have also seen massive swings in prices when they are close to the finish, only a robot program could match that fast, and I don't think its humans betting on course, they'd be way to slow..

3-4 ago I had built bespoke app for course trading and requirements was to start prepared bot when operator type horse saddle cloth number, with + or - used as well for exact bot, so operator could prepared 3 types of bots to be execute, back or lay bet only or execute trading, for preset tick for profit. The user still uses my app so he must be good in what he does.

For fully automated bot solutions you need to gather enough data and then create some machine learning model to identify partners for entry points. Data is no problem, you can get them actually without market monitoring, have a look at my blog post:

http://bfexplorer.net/Community/BlogContent/429

What I think is actually more probable, mainly when you say: "There are many small towns of less than 10k people that have racetracks covered by Betfair and yet the in play prices are displayed almost instantly whereas the video is 10 - 15 seconds delayed and sometimes not available at all."

That there is quite good corruption schema there running maybe, and we really are betting on virtual races, where winners are known before race starts.

[WTPooh]

Betfair just have GPS feeds for inplay races.
https://forum.developer.betfair.com/...roadmap-survey

[OzPunter]

Thanks WTPooh, I don't know how its done, but the prices must be a result of someone or something placing bets, not just monitoring where the horse is in running.. Can GPS Feeds do that ??

[WTPooh]

Betfair bot calculates prices for horses knowing their position/speed from GPS feed and places bets.
Of course it is not an easy task but betfair have a good bot for inplay horse markets.

[OzPunter]

Sorry, WTPooh, I can't see how a GPS feed can cover every race meeting at every course and be accurate in the finish when it can take judges minutes with a magnifying glass on a photo to determine which won and how do they get GPS Feed from some small towns in Australia where the internet is not available and mobile phone coverage (cell phones) is very intermittent.. Somebody or some robot program is making a lot of money out of in play prices over all sports and I really can't see how its done.. cheers..

[bfexplorer]

Accuracy of GPS is between 2 to 15 m. I do not think they have access to military ones which must be of course better one that for public use. Russian's glonass has accuracy up to 2 m, again I talk about public version, not military one which has maybe accuracy in position to centimeters.

People please use just common sense, what is accuracy of position between 2 to 15 meters in horse racing? Nothing, useless...

By the way I do not think betfair already implemented that GPS, it was is just hype, nothing more.