Work out best price to back/lay at based on time left and market depth

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Guest

    #1

    Work out best price to back/lay at based on time left and market depth

    Ok guys I have a betbot which automatically places back or lay bets depending on my system rules. Generally I have a time limit and only allow these bets to be fired off 5 minutes before the start. However a lot of the time a rule is met at 10 minutes out but at 5 minute out the rule no longer exists so I miss placing a bet. For example I need the odds to be between 5.1 - 6 before I lay a certain bet but then if the odds drop to to 4.9 at 5.01 minutes out from start my system won't fire a bet.

    So I modified my rules to fire from 10 minutes out however whilst watching the bot I note odds are Back 3.4 & Lay 6 and my system hits the $6 lay bet at 9 mins out !!!!! Fakkk.

    If I was manually placing the bet I may of placed a Lay bet at 4 to see what happens and then if someone jumped in front of me with a lay bet of 4.2 then maybe I go to 5. As the time runs down if I had not been matched then I might raise to 5.5 and get matched or even just hit the $6 lay bet at 30 seconds out. What I am trying to do is lower my liability for a lay bet and maximise profitably for a back bet.

    So I wondering what ideas or how I should go about this. For example consider the following BACK and LAY odds and sizes available below:
    2.2 2.3 2.4 4.5 5 8
    $30 $20 $30 $5 $5 $50
    Clearly the Back side is strong (plenty of layers) but the Lay Side is weak (not many backers, or if they are backing they are asking for huge odds). If I wanted to Lay $20 and I was 30 seconds out then I would probably Lay at 5 and match $10 worth. However if I was 10 minutes out then maybe I place a lay bet at 3.5 and come and check in 30 seconds.


    So does anyone have a process to follow, code, what to consider etc?
Working...
X